Since Henin Retired, There Has Been No “Real” #1 but Serena

I’m watching the Caroline Wozniacki match on the DVR right now and can’t believe how passive a player she is. Dominika Cibulkova was owning her in set one, until she started firing off a string of errors. But at least Cibulkova is bringing it to Wozniacki, racking up about three times as many winners as Wozniacki, although she also probably has as many errors. But at least she is playing with energy and fire. I’ve seen both players up close in action at the US Open, Wozniacki in the finals in 2009 and Cibulkova on a tight 2nd round match on an outer court in 2010, and there is just such a pronounced difference in the two.

Which brings me to my point. Since Justine Henin retired (before un-retiring) a few years ago, no player other than Serena Williams has seemed like a true number one. Let’s run through them: Ana Ivanovic, Jelena Jankovic, Dinara Safina and Wozniacki. If anything, the first three all saw their careers take a nosedive after achieving the number one spot. And Jankovic, Safina and Wozniack have all struggle with the whispers that they don’t deserve the ranking since they’ve never won a slam. But I think it’s more than that, they simply don’t play like a number one player, and some almost seemed apologetic once they got there.

Serena, get well soon! Tennis needs you!

Australian Open Predictions

December, the slowest month in tennis, is finally over and it’s time to start looking ahead to the “friendly” slam, the Australian Open! It doesn’t have the tradition of Wimbledon, the exotic and sometimes frustrating (especially if you’re an American) red clay of Paris or the electric atmosphere of NYC, but Australia has charm to spare and a rich tennis history and some of the friendliest fans in the world. The players also look like they are actually enjoying themselves, aside from when the temps skyrocket into the 100s. I really enjoy watching this slam, despite the crazy time difference.

But the big question this year, as always, is who is going to win it? Here are my thoughts and predictions.

The Men

This one is tough, but I’m going to go with Roger Federer. He is the current title holder, and coming off a win in Doha, not to mention capturing the ATP World Tour Finals 2010 title in London. Federer had a sensational Fall season and seems hungrier than ever to add more trophies to his collection. Plus he has proclaimed he intends to win a total of 20 slams which means he needs to get cracking to add four more, especially as he will turn 30 in August. After capturing last year’s Australian Open trophy Federer didn’t make it to one other slam final in 2010, which should make him even more driven to prove he can still consistently be the man to beat at the slams. Federer is playing clean but aggressive tennis and seems to have really elevated his game since he began working with new coach Paul Annacone. If he can stay mentally tough, I see him going all the way.

Possible spoiler – Rafael Nadal. Winning Australia would mean Nadal would be holding all four slam titles concurrently, a feat last accomplished by Rod Laver. That would be an amazing accomplishment, but unlike Federer, Nadal does not seem as driven by a need to write tennis history or set specific records. He may want to win, but not merely to round out his current collection.

Why he won’t win – Nadal has never been as effective on the hard courts. He’s only made it to the final in Australia once before, although granted it did end in a win. He also was under the weather in Doha, and unable to fend off his main rival, Federer, in last Fall’s ATP final.

As for Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, Andy Roddick, etc., I just don’t see any of them being able to rise to the occasion to defeat Federer or Nadal. One might make it to the final, but they won’t walk away with the trophy.

 

The Women

This one is more tricky. With Serena Williams still out of commission with her mysterious foot injury, this one is truly up for grabs. My prediction – Kim Clijsters or Samantha Stosur

Why Clijsters will win: Clijsters likes the hard court, and has won three US Opens, including two back-to-back victories in 2009 and 2010. She also won the WTA’s year-end tournament. While she already owns three slam trophies, Clijsters would like to prove she can win somewhere other than New York.

Why she won’t: Clijsters has struggled with injury since her un-retirement in 2009. She was out much of the Fall season and has just not played much since the US Open. She’s getting older and may not be as driven to win. And she infamously fell apart here last year, letting herself be unceremoniously dismissed by Nadia Petrova 6-1, 6-0 in the third round. Clijsters can be a force, but she can also be streaky.

Why Stosur will win: Stosur had an amazing 2010. Previously heralded as a doubles specialist, Stosur grabbed the spotlight with a win in Charleston in April, and went on an impressive Spring clay court run, culminating in reaching the final at the French Open, defeating former French Open winner Justine Henin along the way. Plus, Stosur will have an entire nation cheering her on as they look for an Austalian women to claim the title for the first time since Evonne Goolagong.

Why she won’t: Stosur has not been as much of a factor since the French, and even went out in the first round of Wimbledon weeks after her appearance in Paris. She will have to fight to prove she can dominate on a hard court like she did on the clay last Spring.

Possible spoilers: Caroline Wozniacki. She is the current number one, but has only reached one slam final in her career – the 2009 US Open, where she fell to Clijsters, who also handed her a defeat at the year-end event. Wozniacki did win six tournaments in 2010, but she doesn’t seem to have the fire in her yet that she needs to capture the elusive slam.

Vera Zvonareva. The Russian is currently ranked number two in the world and reached the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open. She is also her own worst enemy, prone to ill-timed emotional meltdowns on court. Until she steadies her nerves once and for all, she won’t be taking home the trophy.

 

 

Why I love Novak Djokovic

I’m glad that Novak Djokovic has rediscovered his playful sense of humor. Djokovic’s donning of an eyepatch as he entered the court for his match against Andy Roddock was a priceless nod to his contact lens drama two days prior during his face-off with Rafael Nadal. Good luck in your Davis Cup match against France, Djoker. I’ll be rooting for you!

Order is Restored

Wow. I’m still a little giddy from watching yesterday’s clash between world number one and two Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, and to see Federer claim the victory. I hope taking the ATP’s year-end title for a record-tying FIFTH time begins to silence many of the critics who have written and re-written off Federer any time he has what is perceived as a slump. The fact that he has played as long as he has pretty much injury-free is amazing. On a quick side note, for such a rivalry that is talked and written about ad nauseum, these two giants of the tennis world have only squared off four times over the past two years. At this point I feel like a more relevant rivalry to debate is between Federer and Novak Djokovic, who have met 10 times in that same timeframe, or even Andy Murray, who have battled eight times in two years. But for now I will bow to the public consensus that Federer/Nadal is the predominant rivalry we should be focusing on.

This was a very interesting match. Both players played very aggressively but I think Federer especially went after balls with more authority, and went for more on his returns. Ever since the US Open he has been playing amazingly well, cracking winners and cutting way back on unforced errors. Nadal played at a high level, but when push came to shove, it was often Nadal who would break down first, sending a ball wide or into the net. After they exchanged sets, I am amazed at how easily Nadal surrendered in the deciding set. Was he out of gas from his grueling three-setter with Murray the day before? Or was he just outmatched and started to go away mentally? Given what a physical player Nadal is, I tend to think his problem was more mental than physical. I think he just broke down a little mentally when he realized he couldn’t count on Federer to gift him with many free points, he was going to have to take them from him.

It almost gave me goosebumps to see Roger hoisting the trophy at the end of the day, although I could have done without the tacky Barclays ribbons draped all over it. We know you’re the title sponsor, your name is even engraved on the trophy! Back off! Ultimately, I think Roger just wanted it more and it meant more to him. Coming off a year where he won “only” one Slam and failed to make it to the finals of any of the other three, he really needed this win to reassert himself as a dominant force on the ATP tour, and to silence the critics who think his advanced age of 29 foreshadows a steep drop-off in his abilities. Federer played yesterday’s match like a virtuoso and deservedly emerged the victor. I can’t wait to see what he has planned for Melbourne!

Technical Difficulties

What is going on at the O2 arena? First on Wednesday the signs at the linespeople’s feet started flashing during the Andy Roddick/Tomas Berdych match, before ultimately being shut off at the chair umpire’s request. Then in Thursday’s first match of the day an announcement came on over the PA during one of the Bryan brothers service game. Earlier in the week a laser display appeared on court during another match. The AV people need to step it up during these final days of competition! The players have enough to worry about without wondering if another technical snafu is going to break their concentration. I respect the O2 folks for striving for state-of-the-art wizardry, but it makes the relatively low-tech lawns of Newport, R.I., seem like a better bet to wrap up this season as the only likely distractions would be the cool breeze or a stray seagull.

Today was free of upsets, with the Bryan brothers, Roger Federer and Andy Murray all cruising to easy victories. As he has in 14 of their previous 15 meetings, Federer once again had Robin Soderling’s number. Both played consistently, but it was Soderling who would break down first in their extended rallies, typically sailing a ball wide to lose a point. Soderling’s serve frequently deserted him as well, making it difficult to build any confidence or momentum. Federer did tense up a bit at times, but for the most part held serve comfortably and is now heading into Saturday’s semis with three straight set victories in the B group.

As for Murray, he came out slow, dropping the first two games to David Ferrer, before righting the ship and winning in very straightforward fashion, 6-2, 6-2. I often find that Murray plays his best tennis when he’s tested, being pushed out wide only to crack a clean winner back at his opponent. Murray also had a little help from the net cord today, which was definitely working in the Scot’s favor. Once Murray found his rhythm, Ferrer was unable to offer much resistance.

Tomorrow brings us an A group face-off between Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych and the match I’m most looking forward to: Andy Roddick versus Novak Djokovic. The first match will be Nadal all the way, the only real question is how many games Berdych will manage to eek out. As the for the second game, I’d hate to see Roddick leave empty-handed, but I think the one set he took off Rafa earlier in the week will likely be his only consolation prize from this season-ending championship.

Federer Dominates on Day Three at O2

Today was one of those days when Roger Federer can do no wrong. While there was no shortage of those days in 2005-2007, it’s something we unfortunately have seen less frequently in recent years. But Federer came out in impeccable form today against Scotland’s Andy Murray. Murray struggled to hold serve, taking about seven minutes to win his first game. Murray was then broken by Federer on his next service game, from which he never fully recovered, going on to lose the match 6-4, 6-2. Federer’s forehand, which can occasionally desert him, betrayed no weakness today and his serving was spot-on. So much so that Federer only dropped a mind-boggling eight points during his two-set victory over Murray. After seeing Murray so thoroughly demolished, my guess is that Robin Soderling is not looking forward to his match-up against the Fed Express on Thursday. My prediction – Federer wins in straight sets.

Day One at the O2

No big surprises today in London as the Bryan brothers and Roger Federer cruised to easy victories. The one match where I was unsure of the outcome was Andy Murray versus Robin Soderling. Both players have had recent wins during the indoor hard court season. I thought Soderling would have the momentum coming after his first Masters 1000 victory in Paris, but it was Murray who played a blistering first set and while not dominating quite as much in the second, still was able to seal the deal in two sets. Murray fired off some incredible winners while on the run, something I’ve seen less of  from him in 2010. But part of the credit for Murray’s win goes, unfortunately, to Soderling’s errors. The big-hitting Swede let loose a string of misfires and could not seem to catch a break at the net, where he dumped multiple volleys. Soderling looked incredibly frustrated that he could just not get his game going today.

Later in the day Federer came out strong in his match against David Ferrer, who struggled to hold serve. Federer played impeccably, with his only real issues being his inability to convert break points (although he won some, he lost multiple others) and a tendency to tighten up with the end in sight. The real test for Federer in the B group will likely be Murray, the one player of the three who holds a winning advantage over Federer.

Looking ahead to day two, the match I’m most anticipating is the matchup between Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal. Nadal holds the edge, but Roddick may be looking to make some noise after a somewhat lackluster season. While my money is on Nadal, I think Roddick may be able to at least take a set off him.

Big Wins for Ivanovic, Federer

What an exciting week! Two tournament victories for my two favorite players: Ana Ivanovic and Roger Federer. Sadly I had to follow Ana’s journey exclusively online as Tennis Channel was not airing the Bali tournament. From what I was able to gather, Ana was mentally tough and her serve has once more become a weapon and not a liability as she defeated Alisa Kleybanova 6-2 , 7-6. Ana’s win also means a return to the top 20 of the WTA tour. As of today, Ana now is ranked #17, one spot above another former number one, Maria Sharapova. I just hope she can back up her two recent tournament wins with a true return to form in 2011.

Sunday was also a very good day for Roger Federer, as he reclaimed his hometown title in Basel, Switzerland, from Novak Djokovic, who snapped Roger’s run of three consecutive wins in Basel by handing him a defeat in 2009. Clearly every tournament win is sweet for Roger, especially as he approaches his 30s, but I’m sure there is nothing quite like winning your hometown event, especially given his history as a ball boy at the tournament in his youth.

It was a tight match, with a hard-fought first set followed by two sets where first Roger than Novak seemed to lose their focus. In fact, it reminded me a lot of their 2010 US Open semi, where Roger ran away with the first set, gave away the second, rallied to take the third, before ultimately losing in five. However, in a best of three all Roger needed this time was two sets before sealing his victory. It was nice to see Roger’s twin daughters make an appearance, although I doubt at 15 or 16 months they truly appreciated the performance of their father. Another post-match highlight was when Novak was first handed the microphone during the trophy presentation ceremony and decided to take the opportunity to interview Roger, asking, “How did it feel to beat me?” to which Roger replied, “It felt good!”  Novak did go through a dark period where he seemed sullen or overly boastful in the public spotlight, but in recent months he seems to be lightening up and returning to his natural self, the “Djoker.”

With Paris on the horizon, which an injured Rafael Nadal will be sitting out, I look forward to seeing what both Roger and Novak will have to bring as they head into the home stretch before the ATP year-end tournament.

WTA Season Ends with a Whimper

I know that we’ve all been decrying the state of the WTA tour for years, but it really seemed to come to a head with the women’s year-end event in Doha. First of all, Doha? It just enrages me that the all-mighty dollar dictates where the WTA’s premiere event takes place. Europe or the Americas would make a lot more sense, since that is where the majority of players (and fans) hail from. It also frustrates me to no end that a tournament celebrating the best in women’s tennis takes place in a region where women are oppressed and treated as second-class citizens. I’m delighted to hear the year-end championship is finally picking up stakes and relocating to Istanbul next year. The men play in London while the ladies play in…Doha?! It’s just stupid.

Anyway, the absence of the Williams sisters at the WTA Championships provided everyone with the opportunity to witness just how much the Williams sisters still mean to the women’s game. If you win without having gone through a Williams sister, have you truly won? Sadly I think the answer is no. Even though Venus seems to be waning, Serena is still unstoppable when she is on her game. Not having her in the tournament was a real let-down and took a lot of the tension out of the tournament. With both sisters likely nearing retirement in the next few years, here’s hoping that some of the younger players can really start to step up and assert themselves. Or, some of the still-young veterans like Jelena Jankovic, Maria Sharapova or Ana Ivanovic need to take advantage of a Williams-free WTA and begin racking up more tournament wins.

As for Caroline Wozniacki, congrats to her for reaching the number one ranking. But now she is saddled with the same baggage as recent number ones Jankovic and Dinara Safina. Both seemed initially ecstatic, then increasingly defensive as the media questioned whether they even deserved the ranking without at least one Slam under their belt. Wozniacki made it to the US Open finals in ’09, played a pretty good match against Kim Clijsters (which I was lucky enough to see courtside!), but ultimately fell short. And while she has racked up an impressive string of tournament wins late in 2010, she never made it to the final of any of the slams. Hardly the performance one would expect of a newly-minted number one player.

Getting back to the WTA Championships, what a bizarre match it was. At first it seemed like Clijsters would runaway with the match after forcing Wozniacki to battle hard for every game she managed to hold. Then Clijsters squandered a 4-1 lead in the second set to take things to a third, decisive set, where she finally managed to close it out. Both players had moments of brilliance, but neither played a consistent match worthy of winning this season-capping tournament. I do think Clijsters is the better player, and of that field of eight, the most deserving of the crown, but it certainly didn’t seem that way at times. My (early) New Year’s wish for the WTA is a top ten field that are truly deserving of the ranking. Well, that and world peace.

Finally, and darn

Well I see the last time I posted it was after a promising streak by Ana Ivanovic and finally, more than five months later, she managed to notch her first tournament win in two years at Linz, where she also won in 2008. What a relief to see the former number one player begin to return to form. I was fortunate enough to see Ana in action in person for the first time at this year’s US Open when she trounced poor Zheng Jie in the second round. I still wonder what happened to derail a career that seemed destined for more Grand Slam glory only a little over two years ago. My guess is injury followed by one crisis of confidence after another, including the notorious service toss issues. It can be so painful watching Ana hit a serve after a horrendous toss because she is clearly too embarrassed to simply catch the ball and start over again. Sadly Ana fell today in Luxembourg 6-3, 6-1 to Julia Goerges of Germany, who she successfully fought off in Linz only last week. The season is pretty much over now, but I’m really excited to see how Ana manages to build on her recent wins in 2011.